On Thursday night Celtic will travel to Trondheim for the third time in nearly 16 months and the second time in less than four months to take on Norwegian Champions Rosenborg.
I’ve used this title before but it really is apt. It most definitely is ‘do or die’ as anything but a win on Thursday will see us relying on results elsewhere and no longer having our destiny in our own hands in regards to qualifying for the Europa League knockout stages and seeing European football post-Christmas.
There are various permutations to going through but I’ll look at those later on in the article. For now, I’m going to concentrate on our opposition.
As stated, in the beginning, we know them well. Almost too well. Indeed when I heard we’d been drawn with them in the group stages I was, to say the least, a little underwhelmed considering how many times we’ve played them recently. We do of course have a pretty good record against them having not lost one of our last five encounters with them which have seen us beat them three times and draw twice. One of those wins was also at their home ground in Trondheim when James Forrest smashed in a solitary winner against them in August of 2017. Overall we have a 5-1 lead in terms of goals as well with the two draws both ending goalless.
They have just wrapped up their fourth consecutive Norwegian title –Â which is a record 26th overall – after completing the season with 19 wins from 30 games with seven draws and only four defeats.
Since playing us last on the 20th of September they have played 10 domestic matches – eight in the league and two in the cup – and have lost only one which was a 1-0 defeat in the league to eventual runners-up Molde. They have however also drawn three games, have only scored 15 goals and have conceded seven in that time.
Their main goal scoring threats are veteran strike pair Alexander Søderlund and the mercurial Nicklas Bendtner. They have scored 24 goals between them this season though only four in Europe. Bendtner though hasn’t seen much football in recent weeks which is something he’ll have to get used to as he’s just been convicted of assaulting a taxi driver. He’s due to return to his native Denmark to serve a 50-day jail term at an as of yet undetermined date. In recent months their veteran midfielder Mike Jensen and young Nigerian forward Samuel Adegbenro have stepped up to the plate with some important goals though neither are in double figures.
In the Europa League groups stages this term, their record has been pretty woeful having lost all four matches thus far conceding 12 and scoring only three. Last time out they entrained Red Bull Salzburg and were ripped apart 5-2, scoring both of their goals when already down 4-0. This came on the back of a 3-0 hiding in Salzburg and to be honest their record in the Europa League group stages full stop pretty awful as they have only recorded three wins in their last 22 and haven’t played in Europe beyond Christmas this century.
All that being said we struggled to break them down in the home leg 10 weeks ago and it took a late Leigh Griffiths header to gain the victory. We also really struggled away against them in Trondheim back on August 1st in a stale 0-0 game where we only created one real chance.
But let’s also put our last two encounters against them into context. Backing August that was the second leg of a tie in which we were already 3-1 up from the home leg so it was natural that we would defend what we had and in the end we got the job done. The Norwegians were the better team on the night but they really didn’t create much and on reflection at least it was a nervy but ultimately pretty professional job.
In the September game, we still dominated and us struggling to break them down was a general issue at the time. Indeed the following weekend we lost 2-1 at Kilmarnock and as the talk of crisis loomed we began to get our arses into gear and subsequently have gone on a nine-game unbeaten domestic run with eight wins scoring 28 goals in the process and conceding only two. Europe has of course been a different story but after disappointing away performances to Salzburg and Leipzig we produced a stunning 2-1 win against the Germans on matchday four to keep our hopes of qualification well and truly alive.
The last time we went to Trondheim needing to win was in August 2017 during a Champions League qualifier. Having drawn the first leg 0-0 at home the pressure was all on us to produce and produce we did as we dominated the game with 63% possession of the ball. As mentioned earlier James Forrest scored on 69 minutes and not long after raced through on goal to score number two but fluffed his lines. It was one of the most comfortable nights I can remember Celtic having on the road against good opposition in Europe and we simply have to replicate it tomorrow evening.
Tom Rogic will be back and Filipe Benkovic will hopefully make a rare European away start for us also. We missed both badly the last time we ventured abroad and having them back in is a huge plus point.
Interestingly both clubs have major cup finals on the Sunday following the match. For Celtic, it’s a chance to win seven consecutive major trophies in the League Cup final against Aberdeen whereas for Rosenborg it’s a chance to a secure a rare domestic treble as they go up against Strømsgodset– the team that Ronny Deila came from – in the Norwegian Football Cup final.
I wonder how much that will play into their thinking? Winger Pål André Helland is already in a buoyant mood comparing their title victory to a penis extension and manager Rini Coolen admitted that despite the upcoming tie against Celtic he allowed his players to go out and party after receiving the league trophy on Sunday.
Despite losing all four matches thus far in the group stages incredibly they still could technically make it to the last 32. They would need to beat us by two goals or more and then hope Leipzig succumbed to Salzburg before then going to Germany on matchday six requiring to beat their hosts by three goals or more whilst hoping that Salzburg defeated us. So it’s to say the very least a long shot and perhaps with that in mind players may be more focused on the big domestic cup match three days later. Some online Celtic sources seem to believe that they could even rest half of their usual starting eleven but what the actual basis for this claim outside of sheer conjecture is anyone’s guess.
Of course our own cup final is pretty important too but I’d say it’s trumped by staying in Europe beyond Christmas.
As for the rest of the permutations we basically need Salzburg to beat Leipzig which would see them qualify as group winners with a game to spare and if we beat Rosenborg we’d only require a point against the Austrians at home in the final group match to secure qualification.
A draw between the two Red Bull sides would also be pretty good news as we’d then face a likely depleted Salzburg side – owing to them having already won the group – in the final match requiring a win unless Leipzig somehow drew or lost against Rosenborg.
Defeat for us and Leipzig win then it’s over. A draw and Leipzig win and it’s as good as over. In fact, a draw for Leipzig and we lose and you’re still clutching at straws. So really we need to win and that’s all there is to it.
But here comes the back down to earth with a bump bit and it’s our away form in Europe. I know it sounds like a broken record pointing it out but it is awful. We haven’t won any of our last five which indeed includes trips to face Rosenborg as well as away to Suduva in the footballing hotbed that is Lithuania. We’ve also only won two of our last 11 away. I could extend the record even further back under Brendan and it shows only four wins in 19. Do you want to hear the goals for and against on the road in Europe too? Na. Me neither. Safe to say it’s eye-watering stuff.
There’s no doubt we struggle badly on the road but maybe on Brendan’s 20th sojourn to the continent we can get arguably his biggest win yet. And a hungover weakened Rosenborg team with one eye on their national cup final on Sunday would definitely help.
On a final note, I’ve just seen the odds for the Salzburg vs Leipzig game. The Austrians despite being group leaders with four wins out of four as well as being undefeated in all competitions this season which has seen them record 22 wins and four draws are somehow underdogs for a home tie against a team they beat 3-2 away in the group stage opener. RB Leipzig start as 4/5 favourites with the home team as 3/1 outsiders. Mmmmmm. That does seem a bit iffy. Is a possible carve up in the offing between two teams with almost identical names and badges? Surely not.
Anyway, we have our destiny in our own hands. Let’s hope we take it with both.
....Always A Tim! 